Racial Diversity and the 2025 Federal Election: Visible Minority Candidates and MPs

The April 28, 2025, federal general election marked the fifth consecutive election to set a record for visible minority representation in Parliament. Sixty-two visible minority MPs were elected, a notable increase from the 53 elected in 2021. As a proportion of the House of Commons, their share rose from 15.7 to 18.1 per cent. However, there was a shift in candidate patterns: while the three largest national parties consistently nominated more visible minority candidates in each election from 2011 to 2021, in 2025 only the Conservatives continued this trend. This article also considers comparisons with the broader visible minority population, highlights first-time candidates, explores the competitiveness of the ridings where visible minority candidates ran, and considers the overall diversity of those constituencies.

Jerome H. Black and Andrew Griffith

Jerome H. Black is a retired former Chair of McGill University’s Department of Political Science. Andrew Griffith is a former director general of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and is a fellow of the Environics Institute

How did racialized minorities – or, in government parlance, visible minorities – fare in the federal election of 2025?1 The numbers themselves are straightforward: 62 such individuals, comprising 18.1 per cent of all MPs in the House, were elected. But how do we put these numbers into context? Guided by the view that it is both important and consequential that Canada’s Parliament reasonably mirrors significant dimensions of the population at large, including women, Indigenous peoples, and, certainly, visible minorities, we suggest these results are encouraging, on the whole, but identify elements of potential concern.

The 2025 election resulted in a high-water mark in the representation of visible minorities in both absolute and relative terms. The previous election, held in 2021, witnessed the election of 53 visible minority MPs who made up 15.7 per cent of the House’s membership.

That, in itself, constituted a record at that time. Even more impressively, the 2025 election marked the fifth consecutive election to produce an increased number of visible minority MPs. The nine additional visible minority MPs in the new parliament is also a significant bump in absolute terms. Each of the previous two elections saw the total number of visible minority MPs increase by only three.

Employing population datato calculate simple “ratios of representation” offers another way to evaluate the results. If we compare the number of visible minority MPs to Canada’s visible minority population as a whole, the election results are somewhat discouraging. But, if only citizens are counted, the outlook is not as negative.

The population approach compares the incidence of minority MPs against their corresponding population numbers overall. It takes a broader view of representation – one in which visible minority MPs associate themselves with communities as a whole, making them feel represented without distinction to age or citizenship considerations. The representative connection can be both in symbolic terms (for example, MPs serve as role models and help foster a sense of inclusion in a multicultural society), and in substantive terms (for example, MPs can address issues of disproportionate concern to community members). More MPs relative to the population means more representation.

Table 1

Visible Minority MPs, 2011-2025

	2011	2015	2019	2021	2025
Party
Bloc Québécois	1	—	—	—	—
Conserva- tive	12	6	10	6	19
Liberal	2	39	37	43	42
NDP	14	2	3	3	1
(N)	(29)	(47)	(50)	(53)*	(62)

*Includes one Independent.
Source: For 2011-2021 data, see Jerome H. Black, “Racial Diversity and the 2021 Federal Election: Visible Minority Candidates and MPs,” Canadian Parliamentary Review Vol. 45, No. 2, 2022, pp. 19-25. MP data for 2025 assembled by the authors.

In practical terms, this comparison employs the visible minority population enumerated in the most recently available population data available (26.5 per cent of the Canadian population according to the 2021 census), as the denominator and the incidence of minority MPs (18.1 per cent) as the numerator to produce a ratio. At roughly two-thirds, it is noticeably short of parity, but it is not substantially different from the result in three previous elections (though the 2025 two-thirds calculation presumably overstates representation since the post-2021 visible minority population growth is not being taken account). Therefore, a conclusion reached in a study of the representation of visible minorities following the 2021 election might still hold true in 2025: “… enough visible minority MPs are being elected to keep pace with their general population growth, but in insufficient numbers to diminish the disparity in their parliamentary representation.”2

On the other hand, if the representation ratio is restricted to include only the visible minority population who are citizens, we see a ratio edging closer to parity. There is merit in considering this narrower legal perspective when gauging representation among MPs as only citizens can run as candidates and be elected as MPs. With such individuals comprising 19.5 per cent of the Canadian population according to the same census, this calculation produces a somewhat less negative picture of representation.3

A further way to gauge how well visible minorities did in terms of representation in the 2025 election would be to contrast their results relative to other key diversity groups such as women and Indigenous peoples. Unlike visible minority MPs, these groups’ numbers have essentially stalled. The percentage of Indigenous MPs barely increased from 3.3 per cent in 2021 to 3.5 per cent in 2025, while the presence of women MPs actually dropped, if only slightly so (from 30.5 to 30.3 per cent). From this angle, the achievement of visible minority representation does stand apart.4

Visible Minority MPs

Table 1 displays the number of visible minority MPs according to party affiliation for the 2025 election and, to show trend lines, the four previous contests as well. In absolute terms, aside from a particularly poor showing and third-place finish in 2011, when only two visibly minority MPs were in the party’s caucus, the governing Liberals have been the party with the largest number of visible minority MPs during the past 10 years. In comparison to the previous election, the number of visible minority MPs elected as Liberals remained about the same. However, while that party could claim the affiliation of 81 per cent of all visible minority MPs elected in 2021, they could only claim 68 per cent in 2025. This difference is entirely due to a tripling in both the number and percentage of visibly minority MPs elected under the Conservative banner. Visible minority MPs elected to the Conservative caucus rose from six in 2021 to 19 in 2025. Never before has that party elected so many minority MPs. For its part, the collapse of the NDP in 2025 is seemingly reflected in only a single visible minority MP being elected (though that is only down from three in 2021).

It is unlikely any simple account could explain these partisan patterns, nor the moderate but increasing number of minority MPs elected in total over time. There are many factors that have a bearing on how well visible minorities fare in getting elected and many are offsetting in their impact. Some operate to constrain or limit visible minority representation from what it might be otherwise. These include the same obstacles that other outgroups, such as women, have had to contend with as they attempt to move with purpose from the periphery of parliamentary politics to a more enduring and substantive presence; these include the prevailing traditional views of the “ideal” politician, discrimination (both subtle and more apparent), and certain institutional factors such as incumbency.

On the other hand, visible minorities are embedded in a social and political context that is not static. Forces that work in favour of facilitating their representation include: evolving societal values combined with the electoral realities that, at least in some quarters, lead to a positive emphasis on promoting diversity and recognizing the political benefits associated with the slates of diverse candidates.

Visible Minority Candidates

National parties may be incentivized to deliberately seek out visible minority candidates to highlight their credentials as inclusive entities in a multicultural society. However, it is the constituency association or local parties, especially those in urban areas with significant minority populations, that are probably most attuned to the competitive status of their districts and the potential political relevance of candidate diversity matching riding diversity.

According to the 2021 census, there were no less than 173 electoral districts where visible minorities formed more than 20 per cent of the population (about 50 per cent of all ridings), and 130 where they comprised more than 30 per cent of the population (38 per cent of all ridings). In 51 ridings (15 per cent of all ridings) visible minorities constituted a majority of the population. This latter figure is also indicative of the ongoing impact of immigration on increasing visible minority settlement: there were 41 “minority-majority” constituencies according to the 2016 census and 33 such districts according to the 2011 census.

More to the point, the constituency parties have seemingly tracked this upward pattern by nominating more visible minority candidates from one election to the next. It is reasonable to infer that this behaviour is driven by rivalry among the parties as they campaign for votes in districts that are often competitive and play an important role in deciding the outcome of the election.

Did the parties nominate even more visible minority candidates in 2025 than in the previous election? Table 2 provides appropriate data. Its first row sets out the percentage of visible minority candidates that ran for the four largest parties in the House of Commons, the Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Liberals and NDP. In 2011, visible minority candidates comprised 9.7 per cent of all candidates running for these four parties. By 2021 that percentage had more than doubled to 21.7. This upward trend now includes the 2025 contest, with a record level of 22.6 per cent. However, the incremental growth from past elections is modest (at one per cent) compared to previous inter-election increases which tended to be in the range of three to four per cent.

Idiosyncrasies across multiple nomination contests may very well underlie this levelling out, but a breakdown by party for the three largest national parties (the next three rows) reveals some important deviations. All three show the same general pattern of growth across the 2011-2021 period. There were consistent and sometimes quite large increases in the numbers of visible minorities nominated as candidates. There was particularly significant expansion for the Liberals across the 2011-2015 and 2019-2021 pairings. The 2015 to 2019 period stands out for the NDP as it increased its minority team remarkably from 13.4 to 22.4 per cent. In contrast, the growth for the Conservatives, especially across the 2015-2019 and 2019-2021 dyads, is noticeably smaller.

Table 2

Visible Minority Candidates, 2011-2025

	2011	2015	2019	2021	2025
All Candida- tes* (%)	9.7	13.9	18.2	21.7	22.6
By Party (%)
Conserva- tive	10.1	14.2	16.6	17.2	23.4
Liberal	9.1	16.9	18.6	24.0	22.8
NDP	10.4	13.4	22.4	26.9	23.7
New Candidates (%)
Conserva- tive	13.4	18.0	19.7	22.6	31.6
Liberal	9.1	17.5	18.4	24.5	21.3
NDP	12.0	14.3	24.6	25.4	24.6

*Includes Bloc Québécois, Conservative, Liberal, and NDP parties.
Source: For 2011-2021 data, see Jerome H. Black, “Racial Diversity and the 2021 Federal Election: Visible Minority Candidates and MPs,” Canadian Parliamentary Review Vol. 45, No. 2, 2022, pp. 19-25. Candidate data for 2025 assembled by the authors.

This pattern changed significantly in the 2025 election. Atypically, both the Liberal and the NDP failed to further increase their contingent of visible minority candidates relative to the previous election. There is actually a decline, albeit a modest one, for the Liberal party, from 24 per cent in 2021 to 22.8 per cent in 2025. Similarly, the NDP’s promotion of minority candidates experienced a somewhat steeper decline from 26.9 to 23.7 per cent.

In contrast, the Conservatives not only increased the proportion of minorities in their candidate team, but they also did so by a strikingly large margin. In 2021, the party could claim that visible minorities made up

17.2 per cent of their slate of candidates; but in 2025 they could boast that the number was 23.4 per cent – more than six percentage points of growth. These data would seem to suggest that were it not for the Conservative’s promotional efforts, the 2025 election might have witnessed an overall decline in visible minority candidacies.5

First-Time Visible Minority Candidates

However, there is an additional and arguably better way to gauge the promotion of visible minority candidacies by the political parties in the 2025 election. By exclusively considering their nominees who ran for the first time in this election, we can judge a party’s contemporary commitment to the promotion of visible minorities as an election is looming. This focus, therefore, excludes efforts made in past elections. Relatedly, it cancels out any incumbency effects associated with the tendency of previous candidates to be re-nominated.

The result for the four largest parties combined (25.4 per cent) indicates that there was a small increase in the percentage of new candidates in 2025, up from 24.1 per cent in 2021 (data not shown).6 Table 2, which shows upward trends among the three largest national parties individually since 2011, reveals a clear highlight in 2025 – an even greater divergence between the Conservative and Liberal parties’ advancement of their new candidates. In a break from past patterns, the Liberals recruited noticeably fewer new visible minority candidates in 2025 (21.3 per cent) than in 2021 (24.5 per cent).

In contrast, the Conservatives dramatically increased their share of first-time visible minority candidates between 2021 to 2025 by nine full points, from 22.6 to 31.6 per cent. By itself, the latter figure is striking – almost one-third of the party’s newly recruited candidates were visible minorities!

What could explain this divergence between Canada’s two largest national parties? For the Conservatives, amped up promotion of visible minority candidates likely reflected current electoral calculations. However, the emphasis on recruiting visible minority candidate is likely built upon the legacy of extensive outreach among these communities dating from the Stephen Harper era. Jason Kenney, Harper’s immigration minister, notably argued that visible minorities were a natural conservative constituency and systematically engaged visible minority groups by appearing at 10 to 15 events each weekend.7

On the other hand, several factors could explain the Liberals’ recruitment decline. Over the six months leading up to the election, the party’s electoral prospects underwent a dramatic turnaround. According to published opinion polls, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s personal popularity had ebbed and his party’s odds of being re-elected were very low. A change in Liberal leadership, combined with significant emerging concerns about Canadian sovereignty in the wake of comments by American President Donald Trump, reversed the party’s decline in the polls. Is it possible that recruitment was sluggish when Trudeau was at the helm and then picked up later when Mark Carney won the party’s leadership? Data confirm that the Liberals nominated their candidates later than the Conservatives.8 With an election called just weeks after Carney took office, subsequent recruitment would have occurred within a shorter time frame. A key question for further investigation, then, is whether this condensed recruitment period had any effect on the number of visible minority candidates they put forward.9

Whatever the underlying explanation(s), at this point there is no reason to believe the small declines experienced by some parties is anything more than a blip. The competition hypothesis (demographic changes drive visible minority candidacies) still has more, rather than less, evidence to commend it. For example, the three major national parties (along with the Bloc) generally run visible minority candidates against each other in ridings with significant visible minority populations. In constituencies with a visible minority population of more than 70 per cent, visible minorities comprised over 80 per cent of the candidates for these parties; in constituencies with population numbers between 50 and 70 per cent, they made up over 40 per cent of the candidates. Inter-minority competition in such ridings can be identified as a positive factor that helps keep minority MP representation at least steady – defeated visible minority incumbents are usually replaced by their minority competitors. In other words, this multiple candidacy competition helps establish a sort of “floor” of representation. Moreover, an ever-growing minority population in the country will likely prevent a hard ceiling on the number of visible minority MPs elected.

Constituency Competitiveness

The commitment parties make to advance their first-time visible minority candidates can also be evaluated by accounting for their competitive status in their constituencies. Nominating visible minority candidates in ridings where they stand a chance at winning the seat for their party would clearly indicate a party has a more serious approach to the promotion of its minority recruits than nominating them where the party has a very limited prospect of success.

Following standard practice, all the electoral districts were divided based on the constituency-level results in the previous election – regarded as a significant potential predictor of each party’s prospects in 2025.10 Specifically, electoral districts where a party lost the 2021 election by more than 10 per cent of the popular vote were deemed non-competitive. There are two types of competitive ridings: ones which the party won in 2021 or ones which it came within 10 per cent of wining. Among these competitive ridings, an “open contest” in which no incumbent was running for re-election, would be generally viewed as a more desirable situation for a candidate – particularly for an opposition party. A decision to nominate a visible minority candidate in a competitive “open contest” would demonstrate particular commitment to recruitment and promotion efforts.

Table 3

Visible Minority Candidates, Parties, and Constituency Competitiveness, 2025 (New Candidates Only)

	Non-Competitive Constituen- cies	Competitive Constituencies Incumbent MP?		(N)
		Yes	No
Visible Minorities
Conservative	80	8	12	(65)
Liberal	64	10	26	(42)
NDP	95	2	3	(62)
Non-Visible Minorities
Conservative	68	18	14	(141)
Liberal	66	6	28	(155)
NDP	90	5	5	(190)

Row percentages.
See text for definition of competitive and non-competitive constituencies.

The data in Table 3 provide the basis for two perspectives on the relationship between the minority-non-minority status of party candidates and their placement in competitive ridings. The first three rows focus just on the parties’ visible minority candidates and reveal that the Liberals were far ahead of the Conservatives in elevating their new minority recruits. The former nominated 36 per cent of their visible minority recruits in the two categories of competitive ridings (combined from 10 and 26 per cent) while the latter placed only 20 per cent of their candidates in such ridings. This is a substantially wider gap than in 2021 when the Liberals slotted 30 per cent of their minority candidates into more electorally attractive ridings, besting the Conservatives’ 20 per cent (data not shown).

Note as well, that a similarly large difference is also apparent for the subset of winnable ridings without incumbents; in the current election the Liberals’ advantage was 26 versus 12 per cent over the Conservatives. For its part, the NDP was able to place far fewer of their first-time visible minority candidates in competitive constituencies (just five per cent overall, and three per cent in non-incumbent constituencies), not surprising given the party’s weaker electoral status overall.

A second perspective on the data works in the next three rows in Table 3 to provide for intra-party comparisons, the focus shifting to compare where each party placed its new visible minority candidates relative to its non-minority counterparts. These figures give an indication of whether or not the parties privileged one category of candidates over the other. In the past few elections, the Liberals have been fairly even-handed in promoting their visible minority candidates. In the 2021 election, for instance, they placed even more of them in competitive ridings (30 vs. 24 per cent for their non-minority candidates, and also promoted them more in open constituencies, 20 vs. 11 per cent).

The 2025 election saw the Liberals maintain the same stance. The party nominated 36 per cent of its first-time visible minority candidates in competitive ridings and placed 34 per cent of its non-minority counterparts in such districts. In the subset of “open contest” constituencies, the party also nominated about the same percentage of candidates in both categories (26 and 28 per cent). Overall, the NDP nominated more non-visible minority candidates in competitive ridings (10 per cent and five per cent, respectively).

As for the Conservatives, the party’s track record of generally favouring non-visible minority candidates continued in 2025.11 To be sure, they were nearly equitable in the case of open constituencies placing

12 per cent of their minority candidates and 14 per cent of their non-minority contenders in these districts. However, overall, they privileged the latter, nominating 32 per cent of them in the two categories of competitive constituencies compared to only 20 per cent for their visible minority contenders

This latter result is interesting in that, while in keeping with the party’s past record of privileging its non-minority candidates, it stands in contrast to the already-emphasized fact that the party recruited the most first-time visible minority candidates in 2025. This could simply have been the product of idiosyncrasies across the many different Conservative associations. That said, it does appear that a more balanced approach to the competitive placement of visible minority candidates might have led to even more of them winning their way into Parliament. Similarly, given the Liberals’ better record nominating its visible minority candidates in more electorally viable districts, recruiting more of them in the first place might also have led to more visible minority MPs.

Constituency Diversity

Political parties are very much inclined to nominate their visible minority candidates in constituencies with significant minority populations. Many of these ridings are competitive ridings where candidate selection can make a difference. On the one hand, this readily squares with the idea of competition driving the local parties to recruit minority candidates to attract more votes in such heterogeneous electoral districts. On the other hand, office-seekers can also draw upon the resources and networks in their increasingly integrated communities to challenge for the party’s nomination. As noted in the 2021 election study of visible minority candidates: “Likely both explanations have merit, and, in any event, probably interact with one another so that there is room in the analysis to understand that the nomination of more visible minority candidates may be due, at least in part, to the impact of competition.”12

The 2025 data confirm that all the parties nominated more first-time visible minority candidates in constituencies with large visible minority populations. Newly recruited visible minority candidates for the six largest parties (combined) ran in constituencies where the minority population averaged 45 per cent while their non-visible minority candidates competed in districts where minorities comprised 19 per cent of the population. Among the three larger national parties, the gap is strongest in the case of the Conservatives – as it was in 2021. In that year, Conservative visible minority candidates ran in constituencies where the minority population averaged 49 per cent, compared to 19 per cent for their non-visible minority counterparts. In 2025 the relationship was even a bit stronger: 56 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively. In 2025 the Liberals nominated visible minority candidates in areas where minorities comprised 31 per cent of the population compared to 17 per cent for their non-visible minority candidates, a gap that is narrower than in 2021 (30 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively). The percentages for the NDP (49 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively,) show a much stronger relationship than in 2021 (36 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively). Similar patterns of concentration hold for the Bloc, Greens and People’s Party.13

Summing Up

From the point of view of appreciating increased diversity within the Parliament of Canada, the 2025 election is clearly notable for its impact on augmenting visible minority representation. This election was the fifth consecutive contest to set a new record level of MPs. Significantly, the 62 visible minority candidates who were elected constituted an above average increase in absolute numbers compared to the past several elections. Visible minorities also had relatively greater electoral success than other key diversity groups, in particular women and Indigenous peoples. As for population comparisons, this latest representation level falls quite short if the entire population benchmark is used, but less so if filtered by citizenship

The 2025 election is also notable for its departure from an established pattern evident among the three largest parties since at least 2011. In each of the four general elections held from 2011 to 2021, these three parties consistently increased the share of visible minorities among their candidate teams, a trend line that, importantly, includes their new candidates. In 2025, only the Conservatives added more of these candidates to their line-ups, while the Liberals and NDP nominated fewer. In the wake of other results, this one particular deviation does not entirely compromise the competition hypothesis, but clearly further exploration at the candidate level is merited.

Apart from the obvious point that candidacy is a necessary condition for MP status, greater understanding of candidate recruitment and selection by local parties is also an important focal point for gauging how open the political process is to visible minority office-seekers.14

Notes

1. The “official” term “visible minorities,” rather than the more commonly used “racialized minorities,” is employed here, in part as it matches the language used by Statistics Canada in the collection of census and other data; the term “minorities” is used alternatively to ease repetition.
2. Jerome H. Black, “Racial Diversity and the 2021 Federal Election: Visible Minority Candidates and MPs,” Canadian Parliamentary Review Vol. 45, No. 2, 2022, p. 20.
3. For a further discussion about these two alternative measures, see Jerome H. Black and Andrew Griffith, “Do Canada’s most powerful federal posts reflect the country’s diversity?” Policy Options, June, 2020. https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/june-2020/  do-canadas-most-powerful-federal-posts-reflect-the-countrys-diversity/
4. Not considered here, but important to remember is the fact that not all visible minority origin groups are represented by MPs to the same degree, if at all. For such data in the context of the 2025 election, see Jerome H. Black and Andrew Griffith, “The diversity of candidates and MPs stalled for some groups in this election,” Policy Options, May, 2025. https://policyoptions.irpp.org/ magazines/may-2025/diversity-federal-election/
5. For the sake of completeness, it can be noted that visible minorities comprised 12.8 per cent of the candidates who competed for the Bloc.
6. Visible minority candidates made up 17.0 per cent of the Bloc’s new candidates.
7. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/more-visible-minority-candidates-ran-and-won-in-canadas- federal-election-the-conservatives-boosted-the/ article_970c99b5-9c99-469a-8a07-eef975f2dd78.html
8. Elections Canada. https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=can&dir=cand/lst&document=index&lang=e
9. Another question is whether the same effect might help explain the Liberals’ decrease in recruiting women candidates from 2021 to 2025 (43 to 36.4 per cent).
10. We used the “transposed results” that Elections Canada produced (which involves mapping the 2021 results onto the 343 districts).
11. In 2021, for instance, the party placed 16 per cent of its new visible minority candidates in competitive ridings compared to 23 per cent of its non-minority counterparts.
12. Jerome H. Black, “Racial Diversity and the 2021 Federal Election: Visible Minority Candidates and MPs,” Canadian Parliamentary Review Vol. 45, No. 2, 2022, p. 24.
13. For the Bloc, 34 vs. 18 per cent, for the Greens, 40 vs. 21 per cent, and for the People’s Party, 40 vs 21 per cent.
14. For a brief discussion about how a focus on candidates can be just as revealing about the openness of the political process as the final visible minority MP numbers, see Jerome H. Black, “Racial Diversity and the 2021 Federal Election: Visible Minority Candidates and MPs,” Canadian Parliamentary Review Vol. 45, No. 2, 2022, p. 22.